Have the Utah Jazz Drafted Well or Poorly? (2024)

The NBA draft is just around the corner! Trade phone calls are buzzing and front offices are fine tuning their big boards prior to the June 26th event. Draft night has become one of my favorite nights of the year, and 2024 is no exception.

But rather than putting out even more 2024 draft content, let’s review historical drafts and how the Utah Jazz have performed relative to draft position and player availability. The majority of this data is coming from DEEP NBA Draft, so big shoutout to that individual for the model and analysis.

To summarize the methodology, draft picks were evaluated compared to alternatives that were available at the time. This was also weighted against expectation. For example, taking Victor Wembanyama was the easiest decision in the history of decisions, so when he’s an MVP in the future the Spurs will only get so much credit for that draft pick. All picks 1-60 are included as well as undrafted free agents that made a roster. Draft day trades or those shortly thereafter (such as Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell, or Walker Kessler) are credited to the team they actually played for not the team that “drafted” them.

Performance is measured using the LeBRON metric, which is why the data only goes back to the 2009 draft and the data ends with the 2021 draft, most recently updated last year (no 2024 performance data). Another weakness is that younger, less established players haven’t hit their peak, so their current score is likely worse than it will be in 2-3 years. Scores for each pick are on a scale from -1 to 1 with 0 being an average outcome and 1 being an absolute home run compared to expectations. If you want even more detail on the methodology, that can be found here.

So how do the Jazz line up against their peers? Short answer: not particularly well

Since 2009, the Jazz are below average in their draft performance. They rank 21st in the league, which makes an already uphill battle succeeding in a small market even more difficult. This probably doesn’t come as a big surprise to Jazz fans, as the Udoka Azubuike is a particularly common frustration voiced by the fanbase. That said, I was still surprised that the Jazz were below average even with really good hits in Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert in recent years.

Let’s take a look at all of the Jazz selections in that timespan to get a better sense about why they were graded 21st.

Surprisingly, Eric Maynor is considered Utah’s worst draft pick. But again, once Desmond Bane and Jalen McDaniel’s careers are over Azubuike likely takes that title. To make sense of the Maynor grade, Darren Collison, Omri Casspi, Taj Gibson, and DeMarre Carroll were taken shortly thereafter. Plenty of NBA talent and the Jazz came away with nothing. Alec Burks was considered a big miss as well, which is likely to upset some of you here. Was Burks a bad pick in a vacuum? No. But in context, Marcus Morris (14), Kawhi Leonard (15), Nikola Vucevic (16), and Tobias Harris (19) have all had better careers.

On the flip side, Utah’s biggest successes were Rudy Gobert (duh) and Wesley Matthews (screw you Portland - I’ll never forgive you taking him away). Donovan Mitchell is up next, and his relatively low score makes sense when you realize that Bam Adebayo (14), Jarrett Allen (22), and OG Anunoby (23), and even Derrick White (29) were behind him. So it was a really good pick, but the chances of hitting on that pick were analytically higher to begin with.

I wanted to look at this another way by zeroing in on the first round. It’s the first round draft picks that have true trade value. It’s the first round draft picks that (usually) bring a fanbase more hope for the future. And it’s often the first round draft picks that makes or breaks the job of a front office. So how have the Jazz fared in just the first round?

Ok that’s a little better. The Jazz have been the 11th best team when drafting in the first round. That said, they’ll have to do significantly better moving forward in order to build the contender they so publicly desire. Which means it’s most important to hit on your picks that are in the top 10 of the draft. Because hitting on those usually means a legitimate starter at worst. The top 3 picks are the biggest swing slots, but that also means you have to actually have one of those. (side note: credit to the Lakers even if saying that makes me want to puke, as well as the Raptors for absolutely killing the draft there for a few years in a row.)

The Jazz changed regimes in the 2019/2021 offseasons, letting Dennis Lindsey not come back, giving Justin Zanik an even bigger voice, and bringing Danny Ainge into the fold. So how did Danny Ainge perform in Boston? Well, his overall average was smack dab in the middle at 15th in the league. Better than the Jazz, but not as good as his perception sometimes is. However, his first round grade is good for 6th best, thanks in large part to (gasp) hitting on #3 Jaylen Brown and #3 Jayson Tatum but also finding good depth in multiple drafts: Avery Bradley 19th (2010), Kelly Olynyk 13th (2013), Terry Rozier 16th (2015), Robert Williams 27th (2018), and Payton Pritchard 22nd (2019).

So what do you think Jazz fans? Have you perceived the Jazz as good or bad at drafting? Does this data change your perception? Do the scores for Ainge bring more or less hope than you had before?

And most importantly, can the Jazz get a hit on Wednesday night?